Mortgage rates are starting December without much drama, and honestly, that’s a relief for anyone who’s been watching the market bounce around all year. Zillow’s latest update shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate holding at 6.11%, while the 15-year fixed nudged up to 5.52%. Not ideal, but at least the numbers aren’t climbing fast enough to make your stomach drop.
Realtor.com’s new 2026 housing outlook sets a cautious tone. The platform expects the average 30-year mortgage rate to sit around 6.3% next year, a bit lower than 2025’s 6.6% average. Here’s the thing: rates may cool, but they’re not heading back to the pandemic fantasy of 2% or 3% anytime soon.
Federal Reserve Expectations Could Shape 2026’s Mortgage Rates
Join WhatsApp
Traders are betting big—roughly 87% to 90% odds—that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this December. Weak labor data and hints from officials are fueling that confidence. Major players like Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America all expect the same move, with more cuts likely through 2026. If that happens, mortgage rates could finally dip below 6% by late next year.
Current Mortgage Rates: A Quick Snapshot
Buyers are seeing mixed movement across major loan types. Jumbo rates slipped to 6.421%, FHA loans average 5.992%, and VA loans come in at 5.825%. Zillow’s national averages also show a calm start to the month:
• 30-year fixed: 6.11%
• 20-year fixed: 5.97%
• 15-year fixed: 5.52%
• 5/1 ARM: 6.25%
Refinance rates are still slightly higher than purchase rates, a trend that’s stuck around for months.
What These Mortgage Rate Trends Mean for Buyers
Think of it like this: the Fed’s decisions act like the thermostat for mortgage rates. When the Fed cools things down with cuts, lenders tend to follow. Lower Treasury yields translate to cheaper long-term borrowing, and that’s where mortgages benefit.
Fannie Mae thinks 30-year rates could hit 5.9% by the end of 2026, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects something closer to 6.4%. Either way, easing inflation and softer economic conditions should help.
How to Get a Better Mortgage Rate Right Now
Even in this environment, borrowers still have room to improve their odds. A credit score above 740 unlocks better pricing. Keeping your debt-to-income ratio near 36% helps too. Experts also suggest comparing quotes across multiple lenders and checking whether buying discount points makes sense for your budget. New-construction buyers should ask builders about rate buydowns—they’re becoming more common as developers work to keep deals moving.
